Methoden der Modellbildung in der Gesundheitssystemforschung

It is a great pleasure to be asked to contibute a foreword to this monograph, both as a friend and a colleague of the author, Dr Bernd Page, and as the originator of the earliest of all ref erences to health system models cited in Table 1 of Appendix 1 and Bibliographies I & II! Actually, while that paper was still at press a much simpler and more practically oriented version appeared in The Lancet (31 May 1952), written jOintly by Briga dier J.D. Welch and me. The former was key member of the In vestigation into the Functions and Design of Hospitals, a pio neer research group, jOintly sponsored in the UK by Nuffield Provincial Hospitals Trust and the University of Bristol. The definitive report of the Investigation appeared in book form in 1955 under the title Studies in the Functions and Design of Hospitals. Primarily concerned with hospitals, it made free use of a variety of quantitative approaches, including a number of relatively simple mathematical and statistical analyses. Con certed efforts were also undertaken to deal with the complexities of the social demand for medical care, especially in relation to the provision of hospital facilities.